Kieran O'Donnell

Kieran O'Donnell

Another good strategy whenever you embark on online sports betting, particularly in sports such as baseball, is to get a reputable handicapper that provides information based on sports betting experience, angles, trends, and a proven system to bring you to consistent wins each time you place your bets.
Kieran O'Donnell

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For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf).

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. . “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

Contributed by:

Why the Line Changes

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.

How the Opening Line Is Made

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’)

Kieran O'Donnell

Kieran O'Donnell

Another good strategy whenever you embark on online sports betting, particularly in sports such as baseball, is to get a reputable handicapper that provides information based on sports betting experience, angles, trends, and a proven system to bring you to consistent wins each time you place your bets.
Kieran O'Donnell

Latest posts by Kieran O'Donnell (see all)

Clients were solicited by word of mouth and on internet gambling forums.. The operation accepted $927 million in wagers on National Football League games during the 2015 season, prosecutors said. “It preys on peoples’ vulnerabilities and directly leads to money laundering, loansharking and a host of other crimes,” Thompson said.

(Reporting by Laila Kearney; Editing by Andrew Hay)

By Laila Kearney

| NEW YORK

Mitchnick is the suspected leader of the ring, which operated in Brooklyn and other areas, prosecutors said.

Most forms of gambling are illegal in New York state, with legal gambling limited to Indian reservation casinos, betting on horse races and Las Vegas-style casinos.

The defendants face up to 25 years in prison if convicted of the top charge of enterprise corruption, prosecutors said. He is accused of purchasing more than 20 houses to help him launder money. Thompson said he believes the bust is the biggest of its kind to be brought by local prosecutors.

“Illegal gambling is not a victimless crime,” Thompson said. A toll-free number for wagering was also provided.

Gordon Mitchnick, 58, Joseph Schneider, 39, Arthur Rossi, 66, and Claude Ferguson, 43, were charged with crimes including enterprise corruption and first-degree promoting gambling in a 57-count indictment, Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson said in a statement.

It was not clear how much money was handled over the life of the operation or for how long it existed. Additional arrests are expected in the ongoing investigation.

At its peak, the operation had $200,000 in monthly bills including salaries for a team of employees located in San Jose, Costa Rica, who ran a call center for betters, prosecutors said.

NEW YORK Four California and New York men have been charged in an internet-based sports gambling ring that handled nearly $1 billion in bets during a single football season and ran a team of employees in Costa Rica, prosecutors said on Thursday.

Attorneys for the defendants were not immediately identifiable.

The group operated several password-protected websites that allowed gamblers to place bets on a series of professional and collegiate sports games, prosecutors said

Kieran O'Donnell

Kieran O'Donnell

Another good strategy whenever you embark on online sports betting, particularly in sports such as baseball, is to get a reputable handicapper that provides information based on sports betting experience, angles, trends, and a proven system to bring you to consistent wins each time you place your bets.
Kieran O'Donnell

Latest posts by Kieran O'Donnell (see all)

Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

So, how much should you bet a game?

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

8. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

2. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

1.

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

5.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump.

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

And where does all that money go?

6.

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says.

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty.

7. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

3. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005).

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. “Teams play inspired ball at home. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved.

9. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

4. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.

10. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says.

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises.

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains